Publication: Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
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Web: ... ISSN:
Year: 2014 ISBN:
Language: Inglés External Link: ...
Type: Abstract
The State of Ceará is located in the Northeast region of Brazil and has more than 85% of its territory under semiarid conditions, which is characterized by an average annual rainfall of 800 mm and evaporation exceeding 2,200 mm, crystalline bedrocks, shallow soils and intermittent rivers. Although there are a large number of surface reservoirs, with an accumulation capacity up to 18 billion cubic meters, the annual water supply depends highly on the rainy season and hence the typical semi-arid climate variability affects enormously the agro-socio-economic environment. Ceará has only one single rainy season during the year, extending from February to May, which concentrates about 70% of annual rainfall. The inter-annual variability is closely related to the configuration of large-scale atmospheric circulation and the ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The climatology of precipitation in Ceará sets out the inhomogeneity in the spatial distribution. Apart from the recurrence of dry years, the typically short rainy season and the high spatial variability, the irregular time distribution of rainfall along the season leads to the incidence of dry spells which may cause a breakdown on rainfed agriculture. Given this adverse climate scenario, the work being performed by FUNCEME (Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources) regarding the monitoring and weather forecasting will be presented. This includes, among others, the network of hydro-meteorological monitoring, numerical modeling of weather, climate and water inflow, research in climate change scenarios, studies of impacts and more recently the development of the Northeast Drought Monitor. All these efforts end to subsidize public policy planning and decision-making process and supporting the sustainable development of the state of Ceará.
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